Modeling environmental impacts of plankton reservoirs on cholera
population dynamics 

Guillaume  Constantin de Magny,  Christian Paroissin,  Bernard Cazelles,
Michel de Lara, Jean-François Delmas et Jean-François Guégan


Cholera  remains   a  major  public  health   problem  with  significant
mortality,  and numerous re-emergences  have been  observed in  the last
decade in many developing  countries. Previous analyses have suggested a
complex process  for cholera disease emergence  and spread, particularly
related  to environmental  factors  associated to  aquatic habitats.  To
disentangle  the  complexity  of  these ecological  and  epidemiological
processes  and   to  understand  the  dynamics   of  cholera  epidemics,
mathematical models  are needed. Here we review  the state-of-the-art of
cholera models  before proposing a  modified model that  integrates some
influential   environmental  drivers.    Particularly,   as  statistical
analyses  have   revealed  that   chlorophyll  a  concentration   had  a
significant influence over cholera epidemics our model incorporates this
association,  we suggest a  new model  where the  disease starts  with a
bloom of phytoplankton, and then spreads in human community.